When Order Volumes Redraw the Map: A New Alignment in Iran’s Online Supermarket Market

When transparency in the startup ecosystem is sacrificed for competition, the only way to clarify the market situation is to piece together the puzzle. Digiato's analysis based on announced statistics and financial statement analysis shows that competition in Iran's online supermarkets has intensified. Data indicates that Okala, with a record of 246,000 orders per day, has surpassed Snappmarket in terms of maximum orders. Last year, Snapp Supermarket had a higher gross sales position than Okala.

Analyzing Sales Data

The numbers below are the result of piecing together the puzzle from daily sales records and monthly performance of companies. Since these figures relate to specific time periods (campaigns), they should not be generalized to the entire year. However, these data, even in the current non-transparent environment, are the best indicators to understand the intensity of competition and potential shifts in the positions of major online supermarket players.

Okala and Snappmarket, in their various campaigns and in less than a week, set new records in order processing. Okala announced at the end of November this year, during the 'Free Delivery' campaign, that it managed to process 246,000 orders in one day. Snappmarket also announced that during its Black Friday campaign on December 6 and 7, it had 450,000 orders. If this number is divided by 2, it means 225,000 orders were registered in one day. The statistics announced by the E-Commerce Management of Dailymarket are also close to this number.

Mansour Niazi wrote on LinkedIn that during the Black Friday campaign, they reached a record of 60,000 online orders in one day. According to him, during this record, Dailymarket's share of the total platform orders (Snappmarket) reached 30%. Considering that Dailymarket is one of the chain stores active on Snapp Supermarket, with a 30% share and 60,000 orders, 200,000 orders were registered on Snappmarket in one day. Therefore, a range of 200,000 to 225,000 orders in one day should be considered for this platform.

Market Capacity and Share

Another player in this field, Digikala Jet, did not officially release data from its Black Friday campaign. However, based on information obtained by Digiato, an estimate of the competitive situation of these three main players in the online supermarket sales field can be made. If the total processed orders on peak competition days (campaign peaks) are considered as an indicator of the total market capacity, it is estimated that about 500,000 to 550,000 online supermarket orders were processed on record-breaking days. With this assumption, Okala, processing about 246,000 orders, captured a market share of about 47% during the campaign days, and Snappmarket is trailing with an approximate 44% share. Digikala Jet holds the remaining share (less than 10%).

It is again reminded that comparing the maximum processed orders on peak competition days provides a good view to evaluate the operational capacity and intensity of competition among the main players. These figures are actually considered the best existing criterion for measuring competition in the market and should not be considered as market share.

Gross Sales and Market Share

In terms of gross sales, the available data goes back to the year 1403, which is also based on sales records, not the entire year's data. According to the 1403 Snap report, the highest monthly sales of Snappmarket occurred in February with a figure of over 1,500 billion tomans. Now, the gross sales (GMV) of Okala in the month it broke the record must be calculated. The company's annual report also shows Okala achieved a record of over 3 million and 504 thousand orders in one month. But no information was released about the sales figure. To calculate it, new information from the company must be used.

During this year's record-breaking Okala, the average value of each shopping basket was about 570,000 tomans. Given the annual food inflation rate of 46% announced by Iran's Statistics Center, the average value of each shopping basket for the previous year is estimated at 390,000 tomans. Now, by multiplying the average value of each shopping basket by the total monthly orders, we reach a gross sales of about 1,365 billion tomans, which is 10% less than the GMV announced by Snappmarket in their record-breaking month.

To see how accurate this estimate of 1,365 billion tomans gross sales is, it is compared with Okala's total yearly GMV. According to Okala's audited financial statements, the company's share from each online sale (commission) is 7%. The company had more than 621 billion tomans in operational revenue last year, so its gross sales (621 multiplied by 100 divided by 7) in 1403 were about 8,871 billion tomans. Therefore, our estimate is not far-fetched.

Intensified Competition

Calculations show that last year Snappmarket had the upper hand in terms of sales value (GMV), but Okala, with its strategy, has managed to surpass its old rival in daily maximum orders this year and gain more market share. We will likely see more exciting competition in this field in the future. A competition that will ultimately benefit the consumer, as with the expansion of this field, the operation of stores for online sales becomes more organized and precise, making online supermarket shopping easier for people.